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    Nu Holdings Ltd (NU)

    NU Q1 2025: Brazil NIM stable despite rising funding costs

    Reported on May 14, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$13.14Last close (May 13, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$12.72Open (May 14, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.42(-3.20%)
    • Resilient Net Interest Margins: Management emphasized Brazil’s stable-to-improving NIM driven by balance sheet re-leveraging and an increasing loan-to-deposit ratio, suggesting robust margin expansion over time despite short-term headwinds.
    • Strong Secured Lending Growth: Executives highlighted substantial traction in secured lending products—including accelerated FGTS originations (with share growing from 20–25% in 2024 to about 30% in early 2025)—and significant upside in public and private payroll loans, indicating a large, underpenetrated market opportunity.
    • Effective Credit Risk Management & Operational Efficiency: Through recalibrated credit models and a carefully designed debt renegotiation program (“Recomeço”), management is proactively managing early-stage delinquencies and strengthening overall credit quality without sacrificing profitability, underpinning sustainable growth.
    • Margin Pressure & Funding Cost Risks: Analysts highlighted that rising SELIC rates and a shift away from higher-yielding products (e.g., Pix financing) could pressure Brazil’s net interest margins, while the need to extend the duration of deposits to support longer-term loans may further increase funding costs [Q&A, index 7][Q&A, index 15].
    • Dilutive Impact of International Expansion: Comments indicated that while Brazil’s margins remain robust, the less mature deposit franchises in Mexico and Colombia face tighter net interest margins and heavy reinvestment needs, which could dilute overall profitability in the near term [Q&A, index 9][Q&A, index 15].
    • Credit Quality & Provision Concerns: Increased stage 2 coverage ratios and seasonal jumps in early-stage delinquencies, as noted by analysts, raise concerns that a prolonged or worsening credit environment could lead to higher credit loss provisions, potentially dampening earnings growth [Q&A, index 17].
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Net Interest Margin Performance

    Previously discussed across Q2–Q4 2024 with focus on contraction factors (e.g., FX impacts, funding costs, portfolio mix shifts) and expansion drivers such as LDR improvements and balance‐sheet optimization.

    In Q1 2025, Brazil’s NIM remained resilient (flat at 21.8%) despite a 200–bps SELIC rate increase, while risk‐adjusted NIM declined due to seasonal factors and short term pressures in Mexico and Colombia.

    Mixed sentiment: Short‑term pressures persist but long‑term drivers (balance-sheet re‐leveraging) remain positive.

    Secured Lending Growth

    Q2–Q4 2024 calls highlighted robust growth – strong year‐over‐year portfolio expansion, significant origination volumes in FGTS and public payroll loans, and ongoing collateral agreements.

    Q1 2025 continued to show robust secured lending with a 300% increase over 12 months and notable growth in public payroll loans (50%+ quarter‐over‐quarter), despite a minor short disruption in FGTS originations.

    Consistently robust: Continued strong expansion with minor short‑term disruptions.

    Credit Risk Management and Asset Quality

    Across Q2–Q4 2024 there was strong emphasis on conservative underwriting, proactive provisioning (coverage ratios and CLA adjustments), stable or improved NPL trends, and dynamic, data‐driven risk management.

    Q1 2025 maintained a disciplined approach with increased coverage ratios, recalibration of Stage 2 criteria, and expected seasonal impacts on CLA and NPL dynamics.

    Steady and disciplined: Consistent risk‐management focus with minor recalibrations to reflect seasonal trends.

    Global and International Expansion

    Q2 and Q3 2024 emphasized rapid expansion in Mexico and Colombia, with Q4 2024 outlining a long‑term global AI‑driven expansion plan (“Act 3”) and an incremental, low‑risk investment approach.

    Q1 2025 reaffirmed focus on Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia while reiterating the global digital banking thesis but with only a small allocation of resources for international exploration.

    Long‑term ambition remains: Immediate focus stays on Latin America while global expansion is kept as a strategic, longer‑term goal.

    Macroeconomic Environment and Funding Costs

    In Q2–Q4 2024, discussions centered on concerns (e.g., inflation, high interest rates in Brazil) and FX-driven funding cost pressures, with deposit strategies in Mexico/Colombia impacting NIM contraction and deposit rate adjustments.

    Q1 2025 noted Brazil’s SELIC rate rise affecting funding costs, seasonal effects (e.g. softer credit card growth, modest deposit declines in Brazil), and continued investments in Mexico/Colombia that are gradually increasing funding costs while a strategy to optimize deposit pricing is in place.

    Short‑term pressures persist: Funding costs remain under pressure but are managed via strategic deposit investments and pricing optimizations.

    Underwriting Practices and Credit Modeling

    Q2–Q4 2024 discussions detailed a conservative, stress-tested approach, dynamic weekly decisioning (e.g. “know and grow”), and cautious Pix financing expansions; models emphasized granular risk factors and early data monitoring.

    In Q1 2025, there was mention of new AI capabilities integrated into credit models, continued strong performance in unsecured lending, and disciplined recalibration of provision models, reinforcing a robust and data‐driven underwriting approach.

    Incremental improvement: Enhanced by AI while maintaining a consistent, disciplined approach to risk and dynamic adjustments.

    Product Mix and Credit Portfolio Composition

    Q2–Q4 2024 material emphasized balanced growth – credit cards showing strong portfolio expansion, secured lending growing faster (with strategic adjustments for Pix financing), and an ongoing shift towards higher quality credit products and payroll loans.

    Q1 2025 reported an 8% sequential and 40% YoY credit portfolio growth, with secured lending balances up 300% over 12 months and continued strategic emphasis on payroll loans and careful management of credit card growth (including seasonal softness).

    Consistent diversification: Ongoing strategic shift towards secured and payroll lending while managing credit card product mix seasonally.

    Diversification into Non-Financial Verticals

    In Q3 and Q4 2024, Nu discussed entering new verticals (e.g. NuMarketplace, Nu Travel, NuCel for telecom) to broaden its ecosystem, as part of a multi‐stage long‑term strategy (“Act 2”).

    Not mentioned in Q1 2025.

    Not mentioned: Indicates a temporary de‐emphasis or shift in focus compared to previous quarters.

    Customer Principality and Loyalty

    Q2–Q4 2024 consistently noted that ~60% of active customers had become primary relationships with high activity (monthly activity rates between 82%-84%), multiple product adoption, and higher ARPAC, reinforcing stronger customer loyalty.

    In Q1 2025, metrics remained strong with a DAU/MAU ratio near 50%, nearly 100 million monthly active users out of 119 million, and continued efforts to protect and enhance customer engagement and principality.

    Stable and robust: Consistent high engagement with marginal improvements in customer loyalty and wallet share across periods.

    Credit Card Business Performance

    Q2–Q4 2024 reviews highlighted robust portfolio expansion (up to 39% YoY in Q2 and 28% YoY in Q4), strategic growth in high-income segments (e.g. Ultravioleta), and increasing purchase volumes with evolving yield dynamics and controlled risk metrics.

    Q1 2025 showed continued portfolio growth (8% QoQ, 40% YoY) with seasonal softness in credit card growth, record high Pix financing originations, and initiatives such as a renegotiation program to potentially boost future activity.

    Steady growth with seasonal effects: Consistent expansion with strategic adjustments to boost transacting behavior and recover inactive segments.

    Deposit Growth and Funding Base Expansion

    Q2–Q4 2024 calls reported strong deposit base expansion (e.g., total deposits up to $28.9B in Q4, robust growth in Mexico with triple-digit increases and notable launches in Colombia), supported by strategic deposit rate adjustments and competitive funding costs.

    In Q1 2025, deposits reached $31.6B (48% YoY increase), driven by strong performance in Mexico and Colombia, with Brazil showing a modest decline that still outperformed typical Q1 seasonality, while ongoing investments continue to optimize funding base and loan-to-deposit ratios.

    Robust and expanding: Continued strong deposit growth with strategic enhancements in international segments, supporting long‑term funding and lending.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Will Brazil NIM improve amid secured loan growth?
      A: Management explained that in Brazil, even though funding costs remain steady, increased loan-to-deposit ratios and re-leveraging will help margins remain stable and eventually improve. In contrast, margins in Mexico and Colombia will tighten initially until funding is optimized.

    2. Risk Margin
      Q: When will risk-adjusted NIM stabilize?
      A: The team noted that about 75% of the decline was seasonal, with the remainder due to investments in Mexico and Colombia. They expect Brazil’s risk-adjusted margins to stabilize and gradually improve over time.

    3. Brazil NIM
      Q: Why did Brazil NIM remain flat this quarter?
      A: Management highlighted that the shift away from high-yield Pix financing and increases in the loan-to-deposit ratio have offset rising funding costs, keeping Brazil’s NIM resilient.

    4. Intl Expansion
      Q: What are plans beyond Latin America?
      A: While the long-term vision is global, current focus remains on driving growth in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, with international expansion being evaluated over the next 5–10 years.

    5. Secured Lending
      Q: How big is the secured lending opportunity?
      A: Management sees significant potential in secured lending, with early momentum in FGTS and a 50% growth in public payroll loans, alongside promising prospects for private payroll loans.

    6. FGTS Impact
      Q: What was the FGTS disruption impact percentage?
      A: The operational issue with FGTS resulted in roughly a 10% shortfall in that product’s quarterly originations.

    7. Credit Card Activity
      Q: Is low transacting on cards concerning?
      A: Management attributed this to conservative initial credit limits, which once adjusted, typically lead to increased activity—thus, it's not seen as a major issue.

    8. Debt Rework
      Q: How will the debt renegotiation affect P&L?
      A: The recent debt restructuring initiative is expected to yield a small, positive impact in Q2 by reactivating customers, with no immediate negative effects reported.

    9. Stage2 Coverage
      Q: Why did stage 2 coverage ratio increase?
      A: Management explained that seasonal delinquencies combined with a recalibration of the trigger criteria led to a modest rise in stage 2 coverage, which should normalize later.

    10. DTA Clarification
      Q: Is the $47M DTA already post-tax?
      A: Yes, management confirmed that the $47 million of DTA is on a post-tax basis.